Real Betis v FC Sevilla
La Liga - Saturday, May 12th, 5.30 pm BST
The final Derbi Sevillano of the season sees Real Betis host Sevilla at the Estadio Benito Villamarín on Saturday night. The match is vital for local bragging rights but rarely has so much been riding on the outcome.
If Betis win, they are guaranteed Europa League football next season at the expense of Sevilla…who, if they win, cling to Villarreal’s coat-tails or draw level if the Yellow Submarine sink at Deportivo La Coruna.
Having won 3 – 2 in Castellon earlier this season, their head-to-head record with Villarreal is better and put them ahead of their rivals in the table if they finish level on points.
Just the small matter of winning this and taking revenge on Betis, who won the season’s earlier meeting 5 – 3 at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. It was the first time the Beticos scored five in an away match in the Derbi.
Betis may trail in the head-to-head 39 wins to 52 – 30 draws for the record – but all that matters now is they lead Sevilla by five points in the La Liga table.
Returning to European football at Sevilla’s expense would be poetic justice. In 2013/14, the Rojiblancos won the Round of Sixteen tie between the two clubs 4 – 3 in a penalty shootout.
To do so, they need a quick return to winning ways. Losing 2 – 0 at Athletic Bilbao brought an eight-match unbeaten run to an end (W7, D1). However, at home, Betis are unbeaten in five (W4, D1) with Malaga’s goal in the last home game, the first conceded in four.
Betis lost at home to all the teams above them; heavily, with Barcelona, Real Madrid and Valencia all scoring at least five.
Sevilla comes into the match having beaten Real Madrid 3 – 2 in midweek, their second home win in five days having beaten Real Sociedad 1 – 0. It ended a run of nine without a win in all competitions (D4, L5).
Away from home, they are without a win in five (D2, L3) and failed to score in three of the last four. In La Liga, it’s no win in four (D1, L3) with Sevilla scoring under 1.5 goals in each of the last five games on the road. Three of the last four games, however, saw over 2.5 goals.
Their away form has been their downfall, suffering 11 defeats so far this season.
In this fixture, they are unbeaten in three at Betis (W2, D1) with only last season’s 2 – 1 victory seeing over 2.5 goals. Sevilla hasn’t lost this fixture since 2006 (W3, D5) with six of those games seeing two goals or less.
Despite their hold over the fixture, it’s hard to make a case for Sevilla to win this match. Betis are higher in the table for good reason and with as much incentive to take the three points. Were they to win, it would be their first double in the Derbi Sevillano since 1995.
Over / Under Cards, Over 7.5 @ odds of 1.76
Over / Under Goals Betting Tip, Over 2.5 @ odds of 1.54
Both Teams To Score Betting Tip?, Yes @ odds of 1.51
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