Swansea v Southampton
Premier League - Tuesday, May 8, 7.45pm BST
If ever there were a relegation six-pointer, Southampton’s trip to the Liberty Stadium to face Swansea City is it.
The two sides are locked on 33 points with the Saints -19 goal difference seven better than the Swans. Normally that would be significant; if only they weren’t playing Manchester City next weekend.
Our match preview contains all the latest team news and best value betting tip for a vital Premier League match.
Defeat at Bournemouth dealt a severe blow to Swansea’s survival hopes. Not fatal, with a home game to come against Stoke City at the Liberty next weekend.
It’s now seven without a win for the Swans (D3, L4), losing the last three on the spin at both half-time and full-time. The Welsh club has failed to score in those matches. Almost perversely, the defeat against Chelsea was their only one in the last six home matches (W4, D1).
With their recent form, it’s no surprise that their matches are low-scoring. Four of the last five featured under 2.5 goals, with the 5 – 0 drubbing at Manchester City the only exception.
That problem is exacerbated by their failure to keep clean sheets; just two in the last nine at the Liberty Stadium although in that run, only Tottenham and Manchester City of the visiting sides scored more than one goal.
Swansea’s record against the sides in the bottom eight, Swansea enjoyed mixed fortunes, winning three and losing two, with two sides still to visit the Liberty including tonight’s game.
Kyle Bartley, Wilfried Bony, and Leroy Fer are all out for Swansea, while Kyle Naughton is a doubt due to illness.
The point at Everton was disappointing yet a great result considering Southampton failed to win 20 of the previous 22 Premier League matches (D10, L10). On their travels, Mark Hughes team drew the last two, having lost the previous three.
Southampton’s bigger issue has been defensive. Their only clean sheets in 2018 came at home to Stoke and at Leicester; five of their last seven games saw over 2.5 goals. Away from home, the Saints conceded over 2.5 goals in three of the last five Premier League games.
However, in that run three matches saw them fail to score with only one seeing over 1.5 goals.
At the teams currently in the bottom eight, Southampton have performed surprisingly well, losing only at West Ham and Stoke (W1, D3).
Maya Yoshida is suspended while Steven Davis is injured. Sofiane Boufal has been out of favour with Mark Hughes; will pragmatism see him recalled to the first team? Nathan Redmond grabbed the goal which made the difference at Goodison Park and will be looking to start in this fixture.
Neither side is in great form and both are struggling in front of goal. The two sides need to win but they can’t afford to lose either; fear and nerves may be over-powering in the match. For that reason, we’re looking at a tight game, low-scoring with caution the byword.
Correct Score Betting Tip, Swansea City 1 – 1 Southampton @ odds of 6.10
Over / Under Yellow Cards Betting Tip, Over 5.5 @ odds of 2.05
Over / Under Goals Betting Tip, Under 2.5 @ odds of 1.58
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